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Kiril Sokoloff is a successful and well known investment strategist. He possesses a unique perspective, having been involved in almost every aspect of finance -- from commercial and investment banking and hedge fund management, to commodity and currency trading to venture capital and private equity investment.
Sokoloff's 30-year track record can be found at 13D Research, an investment research firm he founded in 1983 to identify the asset class, industry or country that will outperform all others. Most of the themes are secular in nature and contrarian in psychology. 13D Research's major client base are large-scale money managers and business leaders all over the world.
As an example of Sokoloff's contrarian/secular thinking, consider his forecast of disinflation in 1980, a time when the world, particularly the U.S., was petrified with fear of hyperinflation. To counter this one-sided thinking, Sokoloff authored Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready?, which developed many of the business and investment themes of the 1980s.
Throughout the 1980s, Kiril Sokoloff lectured widely to investment groups nationwide, arguing for extended disinflation. His mantra: "The highest interest rates in capitalism will eventually be followed by the lowest interest rates."
Beginning in May 1984, Sokoloff recommended purchasing 30-year U.S. Treasuries, which at the time were yielding 14% and which Sokoloff called "the investment opportunity of a lifetime".
Another contrarian/secular theme was the Hong Kong stock market in the early 1990s. Due to the Tiananmen Square crisis, the stock market there had crashed and was selling at a China discount. Sokoloff believed it should be selling at a China premium. He opened an office in Hong Kong and traveled to many of China's important cities. In 1992, Sokoloff reviewed over 200 private equity investments in China.
Sokoloff sponsored dozens of trips for his clients to Hong Kong/China in 1991-1992. They found this investment opportunity so compelling, they invested well over US$10 billion in the Hang Seng Index under 2,500. In early January 1994, when the Hang Seng was selling for 12,500, Sokoloff issued a sell signal on the region and closed 13D's office in Hong Kong.
In late 1996, Sokoloff noticed that Malaysia had recently completed the world's highest building, and was in the process of building the world's longest building. These were traditionally major sell signals. Sokoloff began a series of what became over 100 major articles on the coming boom/bust in emerging Asia, emerging markets and eventually, the developed world's markets.
Sokoloff is a voracious reader. His interests range across all areas of human knowledge and history, and he often reads 10 books or more a week.
Sokoloff has traveled widely, going around the world some 40 times. Starting in 2001, Sokoloff began to write What I Learned This Week, which has gained a worldwide audience.
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